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5 Things to Know Today: U.S. Alcohol Ban, GDP Day, 5.25% Yields (Sept 29)

  Tuesday September 29, 2026 A U.S. import ban on Canadian booze kicks in, Statistics Canada reports July GDP, and U.S. bond yields sit at levels not seen since 2007. Here are the five things that matter for your wallet today. 1 The U.S. ban on Canadian alcohol takes effect today As of 12:01 a.m. ET, the U.S. is refusing entry to many Canadian beer, wine, cider and spirits shipments, along with whey products, molasses and larger motorcycles. The measures were signed Sept. 8 and largely replace the 50% tariffs that applied to these goods. Bottles already in the U.S. can still be sold, and product shipped in bulk to be bottled south of the border appears to fall outside the ban. Canadian producers say pivoting to domestic sales won't be easy, because a patchwork of provincial rules complicates selling across borders. What it means for you: The ban hits exports, not what you pay at the store. The exposure is for people who work in or own shares of brewers, distillers and wineries, a...
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TSX Falls to 2-Month Low as Gold Sinks and U.S. Yields Hit 19-Year High

 

Tuesday, September 29, 2026 · Figures as of early morning ET · Canadian Money Brief

Canada's main stock index finished Monday at its lowest level since July 31 as a sharp gold sell-off dragged down miners and U.S. bond yields climbed to fresh multi-year highs. Oil edged up after Washington rejected Iran's latest ceasefire terms, and a U.S. ban on many Canadian alcohol, dairy and motorcycle imports took effect at 12:01 a.m. ET today. Here is your full global recap.

Key Takeaways
  • TSX: down 311.03 points (−0.87%) to 35,489.86, the lowest close since July 31; materials fell 3.7%.
  • Gold: December futures dropped 3.5% to $4,168.40, a seven-week low; silver lost 4.8%.
  • Yields: the U.S. 10-year ended near 5.24%, a 19-year high; Canada's 10-year touched 4.017%, the highest since October 2023.
  • Loonie: USD/CAD near 1.418 (about 70.5 US cents), its weakest in roughly 10 weeks.
  • Today: Canada's July GDP arrives at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Canada: TSX Slides to a Two-Month Low

The S&P/TSX Composite lost 311.03 points, or 0.87%, to close at 35,489.86, its weakest finish since July 31. Decliners beat advancers 686 to 294. Materials sank 3.7% as gold fell, and Canadian producers were hit hard in morning trading: Barrick and Kinross slid roughly 4.5% to 4.8%, Wheaton Precious Metals about 4.7%, Pan American Silver about 5.4%, and Alamos and Equinox close to 6%. Financials lost 0.7% and telecoms also weighed. Energy was one of the few gainers, up 0.23%, as crude held its ground.

Index (Mon close)LevelChange%
S&P/TSX Composite35,489.86−311.03−0.87%
S&P/TSX 602,088.36−14.08−0.67%
TSX Energy10,420.29—+0.23%

In the bond market, Canada's 10-year yield touched 4.017%, and the two-year gap between Canadian and U.S. yields widened to about 153 basis points by Friday, the widest since February 2025. That gap keeps pressure on the loonie, which posted a third straight weekly decline last week and touched a near 10-week low around 1.4154 on Friday.

Wall Street: Yields, Oil and AI Worries

U.S. stocks fell to start the week. The 10-year Treasury yield reached as high as 5.272% before settling near 5.24%, while the 30-year hit about 5.56%. Oil added to inflation worries after President Trump rejected Iran's proposed seven-day ceasefire, and chip and software shares dropped after OpenAI said it paused training of its most capable models until stronger safeguards are in place. Eight of 11 S&P sectors closed lower, and on the Nasdaq only 50 stocks hit new 52-week highs versus 461 new lows. Nvidia bucked the trend, rising 1.7% after adding $150 billion to its buyback authorization.

Index (Mon close)LevelChange%
Dow Jones51,481.72−346.90−0.67%
S&P 5007,683.93−59.48−0.77%
Nasdaq Composite26,820.38−248.34−0.92%
Russell 20002,817.91−19.64−0.69%

One bright spot: the U.S. and China unveiled a "30-for-30" framework cutting tariffs on about $30 billion of goods each, with more than 90% of covered items reverting to most-favoured-nation rates. U.S. futures are little changed this morning.

Europe and Asia

European markets ended Monday little changed. UK housebuilders jumped on a new equity-loan program for first-time buyers, oil majors gained, and mining shares fell 1.1% with gold. Regional stocks are on track to end a five-month winning streak in September. Early indications this morning point higher for the DAX and FTSE.

Europe (Mon close)LevelChange%
FTSE 10010,684.88−10.37−0.10%
DAX25,374.42—−0.13%
CAC 408,078.48—+0.01%
STOXX 600Little changed—0.00%

Asian markets were mixed Tuesday. Australia's central bank raised its cash rate 25 basis points to 4.60%, its fourth hike of 2026 and the highest level since 2011, and left the door open to more. Japan's Nikkei slipped as yields climbed, while South Korea's Kospi trimmed its losses after Monday's 2.7% drop. China's cabinet pledged more counter-cyclical support for a slowing economy.

Asia (Tue close)LevelChange%
Nikkei 22565,481.22−396−0.60%
Kospi6,870.81−18.93−0.27%
Hang Seng≈24,530—−0.46%
Shanghai Composite3,830+6+0.18%

Oil, Gold, Rates and the Dollar

Crude jumped as high as $96.54 on the rejected ceasefire and a report that Trump expects to resume strikes on Iran after the November midterms, then pared gains on reports of possible sanctions relief in exchange for nuclear concessions. Those reports were not confirmed by both sides. Gold fell to a seven-week low as rate-hike bets, a firmer dollar and higher yields all worked against it; markets see roughly a 70% chance of another Fed hike on October 28 after the September increase to 3.75%–4.00%.

Market (Mon)LevelChange%
WTI crude (settle)$92.60+0.19+0.21%
Brent crude$105.28+0.96+0.92%
Gold (Dec futures)$4,168.40−152.80−3.54%
Silver (Dec futures)$61.72−3.08−4.76%
U.S. 10-year yield5.24%+6 bp+6 bp
USD/CAD≈1.418——
EUR/USD1.1368−0.0023−0.20%

Trade Watch: U.S. Import Ban Now in Force

The U.S. ban on many Canadian bottled alcoholic drinks, whey and molasses products, and larger motorcycles took effect at 12:01 a.m. ET. Bottles already in the U.S. can still be sold, and goods that arrived earlier remain subject to the existing 50% duty. Spirits Canada warned that producers have limited ability to replace lost U.S. demand in the near term. Trump said he expects Canada to seek a deal within weeks; Ottawa calls the measures illegal and says it will not sign a bad deal. The contrast with the new U.S.-China tariff cuts is hard to miss.

What It Means for You
  • Mortgages: fixed rates follow bond yields. Ratehub listed the best insured 5-year fixed near 4.34% and variable at 3.40% on Sept. 28 (prime 4.45%). With yields rising and a Bank of Canada decision on Oct. 28, ask your lender about a rate hold if you renew within 120 days.
  • TFSA/RRSP: Monday showed how much of the TSX rides on gold and materials. Check how much of your portfolio sits in miners or one sector fund.
  • Travel and U.S. purchases: at about 1.418, a US$100 purchase costs roughly C$141.80 before card fees.

What to Watch

  • Today, 8:30 a.m. ET: Canada July GDP (economists expect no change after June's +0.3%).
  • Today, 10 a.m. ET: U.S. JOLTS job openings (est. 7.225M) and September consumer confidence (est. 89.2).
  • Wednesday, Sept. 30: TSX stays open for Truth and Reconciliation Day (no settlement); U.S. ADP jobs, August PCE inflation, Q2 GDP third estimate, Micron earnings.
  • Thursday, Oct. 1: U.S. ISM Manufacturing. Friday, Oct. 2: U.S. September jobs report (early consensus near 85,000).
  • Oct. 28: Bank of Canada rate decision.

Sources: TMX, Investing.com, Yahoo Finance, CP24/Canadian Press, Investrade, Schwab, Ratehub, Reuters, CNBC, RBA. Figures are as reported at publication and may be revised. This article is for information only and is not investment advice.

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