Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 11, 2026
Happy Thanksgiving weekend. Canadian stock markets are closed Monday, but the money news isn't taking a break. Here are the five things that matter for your wallet before the week starts.
1. Canada lost 68,300 jobs in September
Statistics Canada reported a second straight monthly drop (August was -41,700), well short of the gain economists expected. The unemployment rate edged up to 6.5% from 6.4%, and the economy has now shed a net 41,200 jobs so far in 2026, wiping out the year's earlier gains. Most of the damage was in the public sector, while the private sector held up. Wages for permanent employees rose 2.3% year over year.
Markets reacted by trimming bets on a Bank of Canada rate hike at its Oct. 28 meeting to roughly 25%, down from about 40% before the report, according to LSEG data cited by The Canadian Press.
What it means for you: A hike on Oct. 28 looks less likely, which is good news for variable-rate mortgage and HELOC borrowers. A December move is still on the table, so don't treat this as an all-clear.
2. The TSX jumped 1.5% on the jobs miss
The S&P/TSX Composite gained 519.24 points (+1.48%) to close Friday at 35,664.62, its biggest one-day gain in five weeks, led by gold (+2.9%) and materials (+2.8%) as hike expectations cooled. That left the index up about 0.5% on the week (from 35,502.65 on Oct. 2) and roughly 3.8% below its August record of 37,069.11. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 rose 0.6% to 7,811.54, the Dow added 423.31 points to 51,654.95 and the Nasdaq gained 0.6% to 27,366.17, capping a record-setting week for U.S. stocks.
What it means for you: The TSX is closed Monday for Thanksgiving and reopens Tuesday, Oct. 13, so Canadian-listed orders won't execute until then. U.S. stock markets are open Monday. One strong Friday doesn't change a long-term TFSA or RRSP plan.
3. Fixed mortgage rates keep climbing, even without a BoC hike
All six of Canada's largest banks have raised select fixed rates since early September. BMO moved on Oct. 7, and CIBC followed on Oct. 9, raising its 1- to 4-year fixed rates by 15 basis points and its 5-year fixed by 20, according to Canadian Mortgage Trends. The 5-year Government of Canada bond yield, which drives fixed pricing, hit a 52-week high near 3.73% on Sept. 28 and was around 3.56% on Friday. Ratehub's lowest high-ratio 5-year fixed rate stood at 4.34% on Oct. 10, versus 3.40% for the lowest variable rate.
What it means for you: On a $500,000 balance over a 25-year amortization, a 0.20-point rate increase adds about $55 a month (roughly $2,723 to $2,778). If your renewal is coming up, ask your lender how long it will hold a quoted rate, and compare fixed against variable before you sign.
4. Oil is stuck above US$100
Brent crude bounced between US$102.50 and US$105 on Friday before settling at US$104.72 (+0.4%), while U.S. benchmark WTI finished at US$91.85, as traders kept guessing when the war with Iran will let the energy industry return to normal. The TSX energy sector is up more than 51% so far in 2026, according to Reuters.
What it means for you: Sustained oil above US$100 keeps pressure on pump prices, home heating and airfares heading into winter and the holidays. It is also a big reason bond yields, and fixed mortgage rates, have stayed elevated.
5. The loonie is hovering around 70 cents US
The Canadian dollar closed Friday at about 70.15 cents US after briefly slipping below 70 cents on the jobs news, according to The Canadian Press. It was trading near 72 cents in early September.
What it means for you: A weaker loonie makes U.S. travel, U.S.-dollar subscriptions and imported goods more expensive. If you have a U.S.-dollar expense coming up, such as a winter trip, it may be worth pricing it out now.
Dates to circle
- Tue, Oct. 13: TSX reopens after Thanksgiving
- Wed, Oct. 14: U.S. September CPI
- Mon, Oct. 19: Canada's September CPI (August was 3.0%) and the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey
- Wed, Oct. 28: Bank of Canada rate decision and Monetary Policy Report
Sources: Statistics Canada, The Canadian Press, BNN Bloomberg, Reuters, Investing.com, AP, Canadian Mortgage Trends, Ratehub. Market figures are as of Friday's close. This brief is for general information only and is not financial advice. Rates and odds change quickly.
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