The short version: Bond yields, not stocks, are running the show to start the fourth quarter. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield touched about 5.33% overnight and the 30-year about 5.66%, both the highest since 2002, after Treasuries posted their worst quarter since 1994. The S&P/TSX Composite slipped 0.6% on Wednesday to 35,235.87, but still wrapped a record ninth straight quarterly gain. Overnight, Micron’s blowout results sent Japan’s Nikkei up 3.3%, while Europe and Australia sold off. Wall Street futures are mixed ahead of a busy data day and Friday’s U.S. jobs report.
Canada: TSX Ends Q3 Higher, but Closes September on a Down Note
| Canada (Wed close) | Level | Change | % |
|---|
| S&P/TSX Composite | 35,235.87 | −224.40 | −0.63% |
| TSX Venture | 881.93 | −5.43 | −0.61% |
| Canadian dollar (US¢) | 70.27 | −0.19 | −0.27% |
Seven of the TSX’s 12 sub-groups fell. Banks and miners did the damage: RBC lost 1.1% and TD 0.9% as higher yields raised worries about credit, while gold miners gave back early gains (Franco-Nevada −3.8%, Agnico Eagle −1.3%, Barrick −1.0%). First Quantum Minerals plunged 15.3% to $38.23 after a Panamanian government study recommended the “orderly closure” of its Cobre Panama copper mine. Energy (+1.0%) and telecoms (+1.9%) were the bright spots as oil rebounded.
The index finished September lower, snapping a five-month winning streak, but still posted its ninth straight quarterly gain, the longest such run on record. TSX futures pointed lower early Thursday. On the trade front, Prime Minister Mark Carney said Ottawa will hold Cleveland-Cliffs accountable for its commitments after the steelmaker announced plans to idle production at an Ontario facility, putting hundreds of jobs at risk. On the data side, Canada’s July GDP was flat, with Statistics Canada’s early read pointing to +0.2% in August.
United States: Dow Hits a Three-Month Low as Tech Holds the Line
| U.S. (Wed close) | Level | Change | % |
|---|
| Dow Jones Industrials | 50,908.79 | −441.13 | −0.86% |
| S&P 500 | 7,652.03 | −18.81 | −0.25% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,861.06 | +63.52 | +0.24% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,796 | −11.04 | −0.39% |
September was a split decision: the S&P 500 fell 0.4%, the Dow dropped 4.3% and the Russell 2000 sank 5.4%, while the Nasdaq gained about 1.9% on the AI trade. For the quarter, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each rose roughly 2% and the Dow fell 2.7%.
Wednesday’s inflation data was softer than expected: August core PCE rose 3.0% year over year (3.3% expected) and headline PCE 3.4% (3.7% expected). Private payrolls (ADP) added 90,000 jobs versus roughly 70,000 expected. The cooler inflation cut the odds of an October Fed hike to about 35% from 51% the day before, but long-term yields climbed anyway, which hit the Dow and S&P late in the session.
Micron reported fiscal Q4 earnings of $33.42 per share on $54.23 billion in revenue, both above estimates, and guided next quarter higher than analysts expected. As of about 7 a.m. ET, S&P 500 futures were up about 0.4% and Nasdaq futures about 0.8%, while Dow futures were roughly flat after earlier touching a three-month low. Accenture and McCormick report before the open and Nike after the close.
Europe and Asia: Chips Soar in Tokyo, Yields Weigh on Everyone Else
| Europe | Wed close | Wed % | Thu a.m. % |
|---|
| FTSE 100 (U.K.) | 10,606.00 | −0.29% | −1.55% |
| DAX (Germany) | 25,199.19 | −0.79% | −1.21% |
| CAC 40 (France) | 7,964.51 | −0.89% | −1.54% |
| STOXX 600 | n/a | n/a | −1.41% |
European stocks opened the quarter sharply lower (morning trade, about 5:30 a.m. ET) as rising bond yields, elevated oil and hotter-than-expected September inflation readings from France, Italy and Spain revived worries that the ECB will have to stay restrictive for longer.
| Asia-Pacific (Thu close) | Level | % |
|---|
| Nikkei 225 (Japan) | ≈68,960 | +3.3% |
| Kospi (South Korea) | 6,971.35 | +1.95% |
| ASX 200 (Australia) | 8,614.40 | −1.99% |
| Hang Seng / Shanghai | Closed (China National Day) | — |
Japan’s Nikkei jumped to its highest level in about six weeks, led by chip names such as Advantest, Tokyo Electron and SoftBank after Micron’s outlook and an improving Tankan business survey. South Korea’s Kospi gained nearly 2% on record chip exports. Australia’s ASX 200 had its worst day since early March and closed at its lowest level since mid-June, with all 11 sectors lower on bond yields, oil and Wall Street’s late selloff. Mainland China and Hong Kong are closed for National Day; for the quarter, the Shanghai Composite fell 6.2% and the Nikkei 4.7%.
Oil, Gold, Yields and the Loonie
| Market | Latest | Note |
|---|
| WTI crude (Nov) | ≈US$92 | Up ~2.6% overnight; settled $90.42 Wed |
| Brent crude (Dec) | ≈US$100 | Volatile on U.S.–Iran talk uncertainty |
| Gold (spot) | ≈US$4,156 (≈C$5,920) | Little changed; pressured by yields and a firm dollar |
| U.S. 10-year yield | 5.33% | Highest since 2002 |
| U.S. 30-year yield | ≈5.66% | Highest since 2002 |
| USD/CAD | 1.4246 (≈70.2 US¢) | Loonie down ~3.2% over the past month |
| U.S. dollar index | 101.83 | Up 0.37% |
What It Means for You
- Mortgages and loans: Canadian bond yields tend to follow U.S. yields, and the 5-year Government of Canada yield drives fixed mortgage pricing. If you renew in the coming months, ask your lender about a rate hold, which typically lasts 90 to 120 days.
- The loonie: At about 70.2 U.S. cents, a US$100 purchase costs roughly C$142.50, about C$4.50 more than a month ago. That affects U.S. travel, online orders and U.S.-dollar subscriptions.
- Your portfolio: Quarter-end statements are landing. The TSX gained in Q3 even with September’s dip, a reminder that short-term swings are normal. Compare your results against your own time horizon, not a single month.
- At the pump: WTI near US$92 keeps upward pressure on gasoline prices, which typically follow crude with a lag of a week or two.
What to Watch
| When (ET) | Event |
|---|
| Thu 8:30 a.m. | U.S. jobless claims (about 200,000 expected) |
| Thu 9:30 a.m. | Canada S&P Global manufacturing PMI |
| Thu 10:00 a.m. | U.S. ISM manufacturing (55 expected vs 54.6 prior) |
| Thu 3:05 p.m. | Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers speaks in Victoria |
| Thu after close | Nike earnings |
| Fri, Oct. 2 | U.S. September jobs report |
| Mon, Oct. 12 | Canadian Thanksgiving: TSX closed |
| Wed, Oct. 28 | Bank of Canada and Fed rate decisions |
Figures are as of about 7 a.m. ET on Oct. 1, 2026; futures, European indexes, oil and currencies move through the day. Sources: Baystreet.ca, Yahoo Finance, Investing.com, Reuters, The Globe and Mail, Trading Economics, Seoul Economic Daily. This article is for information only and is not investment, tax or legal advice. MoneySavings.ca is not a licensed financial advisor.
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