Saturday, October 17, 2026 · Based on Friday’s close · Canadian Money Brief
It was a week of split screens. An AI-financing scare hammered chip and cloud stocks on Wall Street, a hot US inflation print pushed bond yields back toward 5%, and crude oil punched through US$100 again. Yet the S&P/TSX Composite finished the holiday-shortened week up about 1.4% at 36,176.55, European stocks posted their best week since late June, and the Dow squeezed out a second straight weekly gain.
The Week at a Glance
| Index | Friday close | Friday change | Week change |
|---|
| S&P/TSX Composite | 36,176.55 | ▲ +0.11% | ▲ +1.4% |
| S&P 500 | 7,659.44 | ▼ −1.09% | ▼ −2.0% |
| Dow Jones | 52,002.41 | ▼ −0.34% | ▲ +0.7% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,140.03 | ▼ −2.14% | ▼ −4.5% |
| STOXX Europe 600 | 644.74 | ▲ +0.72% | Best week since late June |
| FTSE 100 | 10,881.90 | ▲ +0.38% | ▲ +3.13% |
| Nikkei 225 | 65,324.29 | ▲ +1.39% | ▼ −5.37% |
Note: TSX was closed Monday, Oct 12 for Thanksgiving; US and European markets traded. Weekly changes are rounded.
Canada: TSX Rides Metals, Energy and Utilities
Toronto’s benchmark swung by triple digits for much of the week but ended well ahead of the previous Friday’s 35,664.62 close. The standout was Thursday, when the index jumped 553 points (+1.55%) – its biggest one-day percentage gain in more than two months – on stronger metals prices and a rebound in technology shares, lifting it to its highest close in about three weeks. Friday’s small gain was led by energy, mining and utility shares as oil surged.
| Session | TSX close | Change |
|---|
| Fri, Oct 9 (prior week) | 35,664.62 | — |
| Mon, Oct 12 | Closed (Thanksgiving) | — |
| Tue, Oct 13 | 35,983.98 | ▲ +0.90% |
| Wed, Oct 14 | 35,584.46 | ▼ −1.11% |
| Thu, Oct 15 | 36,137.10 | ▲ +1.55% |
| Fri, Oct 16 | 36,176.55 | ▲ +0.11% |
The Canadian dollar closed Friday at about 70.65 US cents (roughly 1.415 per US dollar), up from 70.44 cents Thursday and 70.07 cents a week earlier. The domestic backdrop is a “policy trap,” as one wealth manager put it: the economy is showing softer job numbers, but much of Canada’s inflation is imported through higher oil prices, which the Bank of Canada cannot control. Economists polled by Reuters expect September CPI, due Monday, to tick up to 3.2% from 3.0% in August – just 10 days before the Bank of Canada’s Oct 28 rate decision.
United States: AI Jitters and a Hot Inflation Print
The Nasdaq ended a four-week winning streak with a 4.5% weekly drop, its worst week since June, as worries grew that AI-linked companies funded by debt markets may struggle to keep borrowing and spending while yields climb. CoreWeave fell more than 15% on Wednesday over debt concerns, bounced Thursday, then slid another 12% Friday. Chipmakers took the brunt: the semiconductor ETF (SOXX) was down about 8% through Thursday and fell roughly another 4% Friday, with Micron, AMD, Broadcom and Intel all sliding at least 4.5% on the last day.
| Index | Friday close | Friday change | Week change |
|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,659.44 | ▼ −1.09% | ▼ −2.0% |
| Dow Jones | 52,002.41 | ▼ −0.34% | ▲ +0.7% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,140.03 | ▼ −2.14% | ▼ −4.5% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,721.37 | ▼ −1.66% | — |
| VIX (fear gauge) | 19.99 | ▲ +21.45% | — |
The inflation backdrop: US consumer prices ran at 3.7% annually in September, producer prices rose 6.3% from a year earlier, and import prices jumped 8.1% year over year – the biggest annual increase since mid-2022. The 10-year Treasury yield spiked to about 5.33% after Wednesday’s CPI before settling near 5.10% by Friday. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, speaking at the IMF meetings in Bangkok, declined to signal the next move. Futures now price only about a 17% chance of a hike at the Oct 27–28 meeting, but roughly 89% odds of one in December.
Europe: The Bright Spot
European stocks outperformed, helped by solid earnings and lower exposure to the AI-debt worries that rattled New York. Autos, telecoms and energy led Friday’s gains, and the STOXX 600 notched its fifth gain in six sessions.
| Index | Friday close | Friday change | Week change |
|---|
| STOXX Europe 600 | 644.74 | ▲ +0.72% | Best since late June |
| FTSE 100 (UK) | 10,881.90 | ▲ +0.38% | ▲ +3.13% |
| DAX (Germany) | 25,622.61 | ▲ +0.95% | ▲ +2.13% |
| CAC 40 (France) | 7,956.70 | ▲ +0.28% | ▲ +1.97% |
| IBEX 35 (Spain) | 19,326.31 | ▲ +0.77% | ▲ +1.54% |
| FTSE MIB (Italy) | 49,857.18 | ▲ +0.93% | ▲ +0.22% |
Asia: A Violent Thursday, a Friday Rebound
Asia had the roughest ride. Japan’s Nikkei 225 plunged about 4.9% on Thursday and South Korea’s Kospi fell below 5,600 with circuit breakers briefly halting trading, before both rebounded Friday after TSMC reported record third-quarter profit and Nvidia’s CEO defended the finances of AI cloud provider CoreWeave. Even so, the Nikkei lost 5.37% on the week, its steepest weekly decline since July. Separately, Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite fell more than 10% after MSCI warned the country’s emerging-market classification may no longer be appropriate.
| Index | Friday close | Friday change |
|---|
| Nikkei 225 (Japan) | 65,324.29 | ▲ +1.39% |
| TOPIX (Japan) | 4,066.00 | ▲ +1.67% |
| Kospi (South Korea) | 5,668.05 | ▲ +2.10% |
| Hang Seng (Hong Kong) | 24,186.83 | ▲ +0.52% |
| Shanghai Composite (China) | 3,716.28 | ▲ +0.24% |
Oil, Gold, the Loonie and Yields
Crude climbed as attacks on commercial vessels around the Strait of Hormuz intensified and Iran stepped up strikes in response to the US blockade of its ports. Front-month WTI settled above US$100 for the first time since September, while Brent settled near US$109.9. Planned emergency petroleum-stock releases and renewed attacks on Russian refining infrastructure kept the supply picture tight. Gold barely moved, hemmed in by higher oil-driven inflation fears and elevated yields.
| Asset | Friday level | Move |
|---|
| WTI crude (front-month) | ≈ US$101.35 | ▲ +3.4% |
| WTI crude (December contract) | US$99.02 | ▲ +US$2.52 |
| Brent crude (settle) | US$109.86 | ≈ +3.5% |
| Gold (spot) | ≈ US$4,168 / oz | ▼ −0.05% |
| Gold (December futures) | US$4,181.10 / oz | ▲ +US$11.00 |
| Silver (spot) | ≈ US$56.85 / oz | ▼ −0.78% |
| Canadian dollar | 70.65 US cents (≈1.415 USD/CAD) | ▲ +0.21¢ vs Thursday |
| US 10-year Treasury yield | ≈ 5.10% | Peak 5.33% on Wed |
| US dollar index | 101.80 | ▼ −0.3% |
What It Means for You
- Mortgages and borrowing: A US 10-year yield near 5.1% and oil-driven inflation keep upward pressure on bond yields, which drive fixed mortgage pricing. Variable-rate holders should watch the Bank of Canada’s Oct 28 decision and its updated forecast.
- At the pump: With crude back above US$100, don’t expect relief at the gas station soon – budget for higher fill-ups heading into winter.
- US purchases and travel: At roughly 70.6 US cents, the loonie remains weak. US-dollar shopping, subscriptions and travel cost more.
- Your portfolio: This week showed how concentration cuts both ways. Tech-heavy US funds fell sharply while resource-heavy TSX holdings and European stocks held up. It’s a good week to check how much of your TFSA or RRSP rides on a single theme.
What to Watch Next Week
| When | What | Why it matters |
|---|
| Mon, Oct 19 | Canada September CPI (8:30 a.m. ET) | Consensus 3.2% vs 3.0% in August; key input for the Oct 28 BoC decision |
| Mon, Oct 19 | Alberta referendum (polling day) | Includes the question on staying in Canada or holding a second, binding separation vote |
| Tue, Oct 20 | Alberta separation results; US housing starts | Results on the separation question are expected the day after the vote |
| Thu, Oct 22 | US weekly jobless claims | Labour-market read amid inflation worries |
| Fri, Oct 23 | US final October consumer sentiment | Inflation expectations in focus |
| All week | Big tech and consumer earnings | Will test AI-spending and consumer-demand worries |
| Oct 27–29 | Fed decision (Oct 28), BoC decision plus new forecast (Oct 28), US PCE inflation (Oct 29) | Rate-hike odds shape mortgage and market expectations |
Bottom line: inflation, oil and AI-financing fears are driving markets in every region, and Monday’s CPI print could set the tone for the Bank of Canada’s next move.
Figures are as of Friday, October 16, 2026 closing levels, cross-checked across The Canadian Press, AP, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, Investopedia, Kitco and Trading Economics. Some weekly percentages are rounded and oil contract levels vary by contract month. This article is for information only and is not financial advice. Consider speaking with a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
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