5 Things to Know Today: Midterms Day, Oil Plunge, Trade Deal, Budget (Nov 3)

 

Canadian Money Brief • Tuesday, November 3, 2026

It’s Election Day in the United States, oil just had its biggest one-day drop since late July, and Ottawa tables its budget on Thursday. Here are five things to know today, and what each one means for your wallet.

1. U.S. midterms: Canada is watching

Americans vote in the midterm elections today. Markets are expecting Democrats to win the House of Representatives, while control of the Senate is still uncertain. Trade policy has been a campaign issue, especially in border states such as Michigan and Maine, where Republican candidates have faced pressure over tariffs that have hurt local businesses.

What it means for you: The result could move the loonie, the TSX and the tariff talks over the coming days, but one election night is rarely a reason to rebuild your TFSA or RRSP. If you need to convert Canadian dollars to U.S. dollars soon, expect choppy exchange rates.

2. Oil plunges on Iran diplomacy, then bounces

Oil fell sharply on Monday after Washington and Tehran both signalled room for diplomacy. Brent crude settled at US$104.77 a barrel, down 7.6%, and WTI settled at US$96.46, down 7.4%, its biggest daily loss since late July. Prices were back up roughly 1% to 2% on Tuesday after reports of a U.S. strike on Iran’s Qeshm Island, a reminder of how quickly this story can flip.

What it means for you: Pump prices trail crude by several days, and one big down day doesn’t guarantee cheaper gas. With Brent still above US$100, keep winter heating and fuel costs in your budget rather than counting on relief.

3. Canada–U.S. trade deal: progress, but no terms

After a call with President Trump, Prime Minister Mark Carney said Sunday that the two countries’ teams will work over the coming weeks toward a trade deal. Trump told reporters in Iowa that a deal is close and that a Keystone XL expansion would be part of it. Nothing has been finalized, and Carney warned late last week that Canada would rather wait than sign an agreement that undermines its interests.

What it means for you: The talks centre on tariffs on steel, aluminum, lumber and autos, which feed into prices and jobs. Until written terms exist, nothing changes for your costs. Treat “close to a deal” as a hope, not a decision.

4. TSX rebounds; factory activity slips

The S&P/TSX Composite gained 181.06 points, or 1.4%, on Monday to close at 35,801.09, recovering part of Friday’s 629-point slide to 35,620.03. Gold miners led the way (the gold subgroup rose 2.9%) while energy stocks fell 4.4% with oil. The Canadian dollar was around 71.5 U.S. cents. Separately, S&P Global’s Canada manufacturing PMI fell to 49.6 in October from 51.5 in September, its first contraction reading since the start of 2026.

What it means for you: A one-day bounce isn’t a trend. If your portfolio leans on Canadian energy and gold, expect big swings with every oil and diplomacy headline. Softer factory data and higher borrowing costs are good reasons to keep your emergency fund topped up.

5. Budget 2026 lands Thursday

Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne tables Budget 2026 on Thursday, Nov. 5. In a Monday speech to the Canadian Club of Toronto, he framed it as a shift in Canada’s growth model and pointed to new tax incentives for small businesses. The Parliamentary Budget Officer projects a $63.3-billion federal deficit for 2026-27, rising to $70.2 billion the following year, before any new measures.

What it means for you: Spending and tax details won’t be known until the budget is tabled, so avoid RRSP, TFSA or tax moves based on rumours. Small-business owners should watch the incentive details closely.

On the radar

• Thursday, Nov. 5: Federal Budget 2026
• Friday, Nov. 6: Statistics Canada’s October jobs report, 8:30 a.m. ET

Market figures are Monday, Nov. 2, 2026 closing or settlement values unless noted; Tuesday oil moves are intraday. This is general information, not financial advice. Part of the Canadian Money Brief on MoneySavings.ca.