CANADIAN MONEY BRIEF • MONDAY, NOVEMBER 2, 2026
Trade-deal hopes, a tech-driven TSX rout, softer oil and a big budget week. Here are the five things Canadians should know before the market opens.
1 | Trump Says a Canada-U.S. Deal Is “Very Close”—But There Are No Numbers Yet |
Prime Minister Mark Carney said he had a “good conversation” with President Donald Trump on Saturday about the future of trade. On Sunday, Trump told reporters in Iowa that the two countries have the “concept of a very good deal,” but he gave no details, no tariff rates and no timeline. Carney said negotiators will work in the coming weeks to try to deliver an agreement, and the comments landed two days before the U.S. midterm elections.
What it means for you: A headline is not a tariff cut. Until a deal puts actual rates on paper, treat the optimism as a possibility rather than a plan, especially if your job, your portfolio or your small business depends on steel, autos, ag or exports.
2 | TSX Sheds 629 Points as the Tech Selloff Spreads |
Canada’s main index closed Friday at 35,620.03, down 629.00 points (1.74%), as worries about AI spending hit tech stocks on both sides of the border. Wall Street had its worst day since June: the S&P 500 fell to 7,580.07, the Nasdaq dropped 2.86% to 25,437.00 and the Dow finished at 51,770.31. Gold also slid, with the December contract down about US$132 to roughly US$3,899 an ounce, which dragged on TSX gold and materials stocks.
What it means for you: One bad day is not a reason to rewrite your plan. Check how much of your TFSA or RRSP is tied up in tech and gold miners, rebalance only if you are far from your target mix, and avoid panic-selling inside a registered account.
3 | Oil Retreats on U.S.-Iran Diplomacy Hopes, but It Is Still Above US$100 |
Crude slipped on Monday on renewed hopes for U.S.-Iran talks. Brent was down about 3.9% to roughly US$109 a barrel in early trading, after a Friday finish near US$113, while West Texas Intermediate closed Friday at US$104.12. The Strait of Hormuz remains the key uncertainty, so prices could snap back quickly if talks stall. The Canadian dollar was holding around 71.5 U.S. cents.
What it means for you: Pump prices usually lag crude by days or weeks, so do not expect relief at the gas station overnight. If you are budgeting for winter heating and commuting, keep a cushion rather than assuming lower fuel costs are locked in.
4 | Budget 2026 Arrives Thursday |
Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne will table “Masters of Our Destiny: Budget 2026” on Thursday, Nov. 5, the second budget of Carney’s mandate. The Parliamentary Budget Officer projects a $63.3-billion federal deficit for 2026-27, down from its earlier estimate of $71.8 billion, and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is calling for fuel-tax relief and spending cuts. The Globe and Mail reports the budget is expected to focus on narrowly targeted tax breaks for entrepreneurs and small businesses, including the previously announced $36-billion Productivity Mega Deduction.
What it means for you: Budgets move on details, not previews. Hold off on big RRSP, TFSA or tax-planning moves until Thursday, and if you own a small business or a rental property, read the fine print on deductions and capital-asset write-offs before you act.
5 | Your Week Ahead: U.S. Midterms Tuesday, Canadian Jobs Report Friday |
The U.S. midterm elections are Tuesday, and Canada’s tariff fight is a live issue in states like Michigan, so expect currency and stock moves around the results. On Friday, Statistics Canada releases October jobs numbers; economists surveyed by the Globe expect a gain of about 15,000 jobs and an unemployment rate near 6.4%. That follows the news that Canada’s economy was essentially flat in August for a second straight month, and it will feed the debate over when the Bank of Canada hikes again after raising its rate to 2.50% last week.
What it means for you: A soft jobs report could cool talk of more rate hikes, which matters if you carry a variable-rate mortgage or HELOC. Mark Tuesday, Thursday and Friday on your calendar before making any big money move this week.
On our radar this week
Tuesday: U.S. midterm elections | Thursday: Budget 2026 | Friday: Canada’s October jobs report
Market figures reflect Friday, Oct. 30 closes and early-Monday trading, based on reports from The Canadian Press, BNN Bloomberg, Baystreet.ca, The Globe and Mail and The Associated Press. This article is general information, not financial or tax advice. Confirm details with a licensed professional before acting.
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