Skip to main content

Featured

U.S. Midterms Tuesday: What the Vote Could Mean for the Loonie, Tariffs and Your Portfolio

  Canadian Money Brief | Feature U.S. Midterms Tuesday: What the Vote Could Mean for the Loonie, Tariffs and Your Portfolio By MoneySavings.ca | Published November 1, 2026 Americans vote Tuesday in elections that will fill all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats. Canadians don't get a ballot, but we do get the consequences: a loonie that swung from an 18-month low to a six-week high in about two weeks, a tariff fight that has put 50% duties on roughly US$20 billion of our exports, and a lot of U.S. stock sitting inside our TFSAs and RRSPs. Here is how to think about all of it without trying to guess the winner. The short version: Nobody can reliably trade an election result. Forecasters lean toward Democrats winning the House, with the Senate closer. But history says the bigger market moves tend to come in the months after the vote, not on election night. For Canadians, the useful steps are practical: convert U.S. dollars in pieces, know how much U.S. stock you hold, and don't...
Post a Comment
Read more

article

Labels

5 Things to Know Today: TSX Slides, Nasdaq Rout, Oil Tops US$104, Budget Week

 

Sunday, November 1, 2026  |  Canadian Money Brief

Markets are closed today, so the numbers below are Friday’s closes. Here is what matters for your money as the week begins.

Friday, Oct. 30 closeLevelChange
S&P/TSX Composite35,620.03-1.74%
S&P 5007,580.07-1.82%
Nasdaq Composite25,437.00-2.86%
Dow Jones Industrial Average51,770.31-1.09%
WTI crude (US$ a barrel)104.12+2.08%
Canadian dollar (U.S. cents)about 71.6—

1. The TSX ends October with a 1.7% sell-off

The S&P/TSX Composite fell 629.00 points to 35,620.03 on Friday, leaving it down 168.15 points, or 0.47%, on the week. Gold shares did the most damage: the gold sub-index dropped 6.4%, materials fell 5.7% and technology slid 3.4%. Cameco sank about 9.5% after missing third-quarter revenue estimates. Only telecoms, energy and consumer staples finished higher.

What it means for you: A TSX index fund in your TFSA or RRSP leans heavily on gold, materials and energy, so days like Friday can swing hard even when your plan has not changed. The index is still up roughly 17.7% from a year ago. Check your sector mix before you react to a single session.

2. Wall Street’s AI-spending scare hits tech

The Nasdaq Composite fell 2.86%, its biggest one-day drop since June 5, and now sits 7.8% below its Oct. 6 record close. The S&P 500 lost 1.82%, its worst day since June, and the Dow shed 1.09%. Intel plunged about 29% on a weak outlook, while Amazon’s results showed negative free cash flow of US$42.4 billion over the past 12 months alongside a US$220 billion capital spending plan for 2026. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both finished October lower, while the Dow ended the month with a gain.

What it means for you: Many Canadians hold U.S. tech through S&P 500 or Nasdaq-100 funds in an RRSP, TFSA or FHSA. Those funds lean on a handful of giant AI-linked stocks, so find out how much of your portfolio rides on them. One bad day is not a reason to sell, but it is a good reason to know what you own.

3. Oil settles above US$104 after a Hormuz tanker attack

West Texas Intermediate settled up US$2.12 at US$104.12 a barrel, and January Brent finished at US$113.43. Both closed at their highest levels since late April after an attack on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. For October, WTI gained 15.2% and Brent 13.6%, the fourth straight monthly advance for each. Energy was one of only three TSX groups to rise on Friday, up 1.3%, with Imperial Oil gaining 5.4%.

What it means for you: Crude flows into pump prices and winter heating bills with a delay. If you drive a lot or heat with oil or propane, plan for fuel to stay expensive into winter and build it into your November budget. Higher oil also adds to the inflation pressure the Bank of Canada is fighting after raising its rate to 2.50% last Wednesday.

4. Canada’s economy stalls for a second straight month

Statistics Canada reported that real GDP was flat in August (0.0%), well short of the 0.2% economists expected, after no growth in July. The agency’s advance estimate points to a 0.1% decline in September, and the preliminary read on the third quarter is growth of 0.3% over the second quarter, not annualized. The next checkpoint is Nov. 30, when September GDP and the official Q3 figures are released.

What it means for you: The Bank of Canada’s Oct. 28 hike to 2.50%, its first in three years, landed on an economy that is not growing. That is the squeeze households feel: higher borrowing costs with less momentum in jobs and incomes. If you carry a variable-rate mortgage, HELOC or line of credit, your costs are already higher. The Bank’s next decision is Dec. 9, so this is a good week to confirm your emergency fund.

5. Budget week: Ottawa tables Budget 2026 on Thursday

Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne will deliver the federal budget on Nov. 5, two days after the U.S. midterm elections. The Parliamentary Budget Officer expects a $63.3-billion deficit in 2026-27, down from its $71.8-billion June forecast, rising to $70.2 billion the following year, and says Ottawa is set to miss its fiscal anchor of a declining deficit-to-GDP ratio. In a letter to Prime Minister Mark Carney reported Sunday, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre asked for federal taxes on diesel to be removed until Canada Day, the GST on fuel to be suspended until summer and the fuel standard tax to be scrapped permanently, along with spending restraint. Champagne has so far given only a broad preview, saying the budget will lay out next steps on resilience and affordability.

What it means for you: Budget announcements usually need legislation or regulations before they reach your paycheque or tax return, so avoid rushing RRSP, TFSA or other money moves on rumours before Thursday. We will break down what actually changes for your wallet once the numbers are out.

On the radar this week

  • Today (Sun., Nov. 1): Ontario’s new electricity prices take effect, and clocks went back an hour at 2 a.m. Winter time-of-use rates are about 7% lower (off-peak 9.1¢, mid-peak 14.6¢, on-peak 18.9¢ per kWh), but the Ontario Electricity Rebate shrinks from 23.5% to 15.7%, so your bill may not fall as much as the rates do. The Ontario Energy Board puts the rebate change at about $23 a month for a typical 700 kWh household.
  • Tue., Nov. 3: U.S. midterm elections. Canada and the U.S. still have no steel and auto tariff deal, and Carney said last week that Canada is not at that point. Trump has threatened 50% tariffs on Canadian autos, auto parts and steel from Jan. 1, 2027.
  • Thu., Nov. 5: Federal Budget 2026.
  • Wed., Dec. 9: The Bank of Canada’s next rate decision.

Market figures are Friday, Oct. 30 closes, cross-checked across Reuters, Baystreet, TMX and Yahoo Finance; the Canadian dollar level is approximate. Other sources: Statistics Canada (via investingLive), Ontario Energy Board, The Canadian Press, Bank of Canada. This article is general information, not financial advice. MoneySavings.ca | Canadian Money Brief.

Labels:

Comments

Post a Comment