5 Things to Know Today: US CPI, BoC Minutes, Oil Below US$90 (Nov. 10)

 

Tuesday, November 10, 2026. U.S. inflation data, Bank of Canada minutes and a sharp slide in oil headline your morning. Here is what matters for your wallet.

1. US inflation report lands at 8:30 a.m. ET

Economists expect October U.S. consumer prices to rise 0.3% from September, slower than the 0.6% jump the month before, with core prices up 0.2%. There will be no annual rate this time because last year's government shutdown left a gap in the October 2025 data. Strong U.S. jobs numbers on Friday have already pushed the odds of a Fed rate hike on December 9 above 65%.

What it means for you: U.S. rate expectations move Canadian bond yields, which set fixed mortgage rates, and they swing the loonie. A hot reading could push yields higher; a cool one could give borrowers a little breathing room.

2. Bank of Canada releases its rate-hike minutes at 1:30 p.m. ET

The central bank publishes its summary of deliberations on the October 28 decision, when it raised its policy rate by a quarter point to 2.50%. The big banks followed by lifting prime, with RBC's moving to 4.70%. Look for any hint about how likely another move is on December 9.

What it means for you: If you have a variable-rate mortgage or a HELOC, your payment already reflects the hike. The tone of these minutes is the best early clue on whether more is coming, and on whether fixed-rate renewals will get pricier.

3. Oil slips below US$90, a first since August

Brent crude fell under US$90 a barrel early Tuesday and is down roughly 22% since the end of October, per Reuters. West Texas Intermediate is trading near US$85. The slide came after President Trump signalled that military action against Iran isn't needed "at this point", a comment that eased fears of supply disruptions.

What it means for you: Pump prices usually follow crude with a delay, so relief at the gas station may take a week or two to show up. Cheaper energy also takes pressure off inflation, which is the main thing keeping the Bank of Canada hawkish. Middle East headlines can still reverse this quickly.

4. TSX jumps 1.8% as U.S. stocks rebound

The S&P/TSX Composite gained 657.17 points on Monday to close at 36,446.26, led by miners while energy shares fell with oil. The Canadian dollar was unchanged at 70.82 cents U.S. On Wall Street, the Dow rose 2.15%, the S&P 500 gained 2.35% and the Nasdaq climbed 2.74% after last week's tech-led selloff.

What it means for you: One strong session doesn't undo a rough week, and it isn't a reason to change your plan. If your RRSP or TFSA took a hit last week, today is a good day to check that your mix still matches your timeline rather than react to the swings.

5. Ottawa loosens some counter-tariff rules while talks stay stuck

Bloomberg reports that Canada is widening the list of U.S. goods importers can seek exemptions on from its counter-tariffs, while ending relief on some American-made aluminum products. Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand said Canada hopes for progress on trade after the U.S. midterms. The 50% U.S. tariffs on about US$20 billion of Canadian goods remain in place, and no deal has been signed.

What it means for you: Exemptions can keep costs down on some imported inputs, but until there is an actual agreement, don't count on prices for tariff-hit goods to fall. Big purchases tied to steel, aluminum or autos are worth pricing carefully.

On the radar: Remembrance Day on Wednesday, Nov. 11 (check hours for banks and government offices); Canada's October CPI on Monday, Nov. 16; Nvidia earnings on Nov. 17; Canada's jobs report on Dec. 4; Bank of Canada and Fed decisions on Dec. 9.

Sources: Bank of Canada, Baystreet.ca, Reuters, Bloomberg, TipRanks. Market figures reflect Monday's close and early Tuesday trading. This content is for information only and is not financial advice.