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CPI Monday: What Hot or Cool Inflation Means for Dec. 9 and Your Mortgage

  Canadian Money Brief • Friday, November 13, 2026 Statistics Canada releases the October Consumer Price Index on Monday, Nov. 16, at 8:30 a.m. ET . It is the last big inflation reading before the Bank of Canada decides on Dec. 9 whether to follow October's hike to 2.50% with a second one. If you have a variable-rate mortgage, a HELOC or a renewal coming up, this one number can move your costs before the central bank even meets. Here is what is expected, what the Bank of Canada will actually be looking at, and what a hot, in-line or cool print could mean for your wallet. The short version Headline inflation is expected to tick higher on energy. The number that matters more for Dec. 9 is core inflation. If core bounces, hike odds rise and fixed mortgage rates tend to follow bond yields up. If core stays calm, the odds of a second hike should fade. Where things stand heading into Monday Item Latest September CPI (Statistics Canada) 3.1% year over year, up from 3.0% in August and sli...

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TSX Slips as Gold Sinks to a 1-Year Low and Nvidia’s CEO Exits | Daily Markets Update, Nov 13

 

CANADIAN MONEY BRIEF · DAILY MARKETS UPDATE
Friday, November 13, 2026 · Covers Thursday’s closes plus Friday’s Asia and early Europe trading

Canada’s main stock index slipped Thursday as a 3% plunge in gold dragged down miners, while Wall Street ended lower after Nvidia’s CEO resigned. Bond yields jumped, oil rebounded and the loonie sagged. Here is the full wrap.

The Short Version
  • TSX closed at 36,137.19, down 0.75%, about 2.5% below its record of 37,069.11 set in August.
  • Gold hit its lowest close in more than a year as the U.S. dollar and Fed hike bets surged.
  • Wall Street slipped ~0.4% as Nvidia fell 4.3%. The U.S. 10-year yield jumped back above 5%.
  • Europe’s STOXX 600 set a record close Thursday, then eased Friday. Asia was mixed.

🇨🇦 Canada: Gold Drags the TSX Lower

Index / MetricCloseChange
S&P/TSX Composite36,137.19−274.53 (−0.75%)
TSX Venture Exchange802.78−14.24 (−1.7%)
Canadian dollar (US cents)70.14¢−0.04¢

The S&P/TSX Composite closed near its session low of 36,080.86 on Thursday. All but three of the 12 sub-groups fell, led by gold (down 3.5%), materials (down 2.7%) and health care (down 1.5%). Energy gained about 1% as oil rebounded and technology rose 0.9%. The index is still up roughly 1% on the week and about 19% over the past year.

Celestica jumped 4.8% to $361.92, avoiding the Nvidia-driven chip selloff, and Cargojet surged 10.3% to $108.77 after third-quarter results beat estimates. On the data front, Canadian building permits fell 4.1% to $12.9 billion in September.

🇺🇸 U.S.: Nvidia’s CEO Exit Rattles the AI Trade

IndexCloseChange
Dow Jones Industrial Average52,297.09−189.40 (−0.36%)
S&P 5007,592.40−26.98 (−0.35%)
Nasdaq Composite25,366.09−100.10 (−0.39%)
Nvidia (NVDA)US$166.19−4.3%

U.S. stocks swung on both sides of unchanged before finishing lower. Nvidia dropped almost 12% at one point after CEO Jensen Huang resigned following media reports about his personal conduct, then recovered to close down 4.3%. CFO Colette Kress is interim CEO. Rivals gained, with AMD up 5.9% and Broadcom up 5.5%. Nvidia is on track for a weekly decline of about 11%.

The bigger driver was rates. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed roughly 12 basis points to about 5.12% (about 5.10% on some measures) and the 2-year jumped about 15 basis points to roughly 4.88%, as bond markets reopened after the Veterans Day holiday. Traders now price roughly an 87–89% chance of a quarter-point Fed hike in December, with a small chance of a half-point move that was close to zero a week ago, following Tuesday’s hotter-than-expected inflation report. The U.S. dollar index rose about 0.3% to a near 19-month high.

U.S. futures were slightly higher Friday morning and Nvidia was up roughly 2% in premarket trading.

🌍 Europe and Asia: Europe Hits a Record, Asia Mixed

Europe (Thursday close)CloseChange
STOXX Europe 600664.01+0.14%
Germany DAX26,771.88+0.41%
France CAC 408,361.36+0.34%
UK FTSE 10010,863.09+0.25%

European stocks leaned on strong third-quarter earnings and limited exposure to AI-linked megacaps. The STOXX 600 notched a fresh record close Thursday. On Friday morning it slipped about 0.2% to around 662.5, with the DAX down 0.3%, the CAC 40 down 0.2% and the FTSE 100 little changed. The STOXX 600 is still on track for a weekly gain of about 2.4%, its best since June.

Asia-Pacific (Friday close)CloseChange
Japan Nikkei 22561,142.35+0.5%
Hong Kong Hang Seng23,637.60−1.6%
Shanghai Composite3,634.35−0.6%
South Korea Kospi5,290.53−1.0%
Australia S&P/ASX 2009,082.20−0.7%
Taiwan Taiex43,675.12+1.4%

Asian shares were mixed Friday as investors weighed what Huang’s exit means for the AI industry. Hong Kong fell 1.6% amid worries about tighter U.S. chip export rules, while Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.5% and Taiwan’s Taiex gained 1.4%.

🛢️ Oil, Gold and Currencies

Commodity / Yield (Thursday)LevelChange
WTI crude (Dec)US$88.74+2.6%
Brent crude (Jan)US$95.82+3.3%
Gold (spot)~US$3,876−2.8%
Silver (Comex)US$49.97−3.7%
U.S. 10-year Treasury yield~5.12%+0.12 pt

Oil flipped from early losses to solid gains after President Trump wrote that the U.S. does not need a deal with Iran, dimming hopes for talks on the Strait of Hormuz. Brent swung about US$5 during the session. Even so, WTI is still down roughly 16% in November and Brent about 20%. WTI was around US$88.50 early Friday.

Gold fell about 3% to its lowest close in more than a year, touching about US$3,852 intraday as the dollar and Treasury yields climbed and rate-hike bets grew. It bounced about 0.7% to near US$3,914 in Asian trading Friday. The Canadian dollar finished near 70.1 U.S. cents, its weakest daily close since Oct. 14, with Canada’s 10-year yield around 3.8%. Bitcoin slipped below US$70,000.

💡 What It Means for You
  • Borrowing costs: U.S. yields are back above 5% and markets see a December Fed hike as near-certain. Lenders watch bond yields when they price fixed mortgages, and Canada’s 10-year sits near 3.8%. If you have a variable-rate mortgage or HELOC, the Bank of Canada’s Dec. 9 decision (policy rate 2.50%) is the date to circle, and Monday’s CPI is the next clue.
  • Your TFSA / RRSP: Gold stocks fell 3.5% on the TSX in one day. If your index fund or ETF holds miners, you saw it. One-day swings like this are a reminder to check your mix, not a reason to react.
  • Gas prices: Oil is still down about 16% in November (WTI), but it jumped Thursday when Trump said the U.S. does not need a deal with Iran. Pump relief is not guaranteed.
  • Cross-border costs: At about 70¢ US, the loonie closed at its weakest level since Oct. 14. U.S. purchases, travel and Black Friday cross-border orders cost more.

📅 What to Watch

  • Today, 8:30 a.m. ET: U.S. October Producer Price Index. Consensus is +0.4% on the month and +6.6% year over year (core +0.3%), after September’s 1.3% jump.
  • Mon., Nov. 16, 8:30 a.m. ET: Canada’s October CPI. Forecasts are around 3.2% versus 3.1% in September.
  • Tue., Nov. 17 (after the close): Nvidia reports quarterly results, its first without Jensen Huang as CEO.
  • Wed., Nov. 18: Minutes of the Fed’s last meeting.
  • Dec. 9: Bank of Canada and Fed rate decisions.

Market figures are Thursday, Nov. 12 closing levels (Asia and early-Europe figures are from Friday, Nov. 13) as reported by The Canadian Press, Reuters, the Associated Press, CNBC, Yahoo Finance and Baystreet, cross-checked across sources. Levels and percentage changes may differ slightly by provider. This article is for general information only and is not financial, investment or legal advice.

MoneySavings.ca · Canadian Money Brief

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