Weekly Market Snapshot: AI Rout, Oil Plunge and Weak Jobs Rock the Week (Nov 2–6)
It was a week of two completely different markets. Stocks jumped early after Democrats won control of Congress in the U.S. midterms, and oil collapsed on hopes of a path to ending the Iran conflict. Then, on Thursday, a violent AI and chip selloff hit Wall Street, tipped the Nasdaq into a correction and spread to Asia and Europe on Friday. Canada's S&P/TSX managed a small weekly gain, helped by metals and a late bounce, but the loonie and the job market told a weaker story at home.
🇨🇦 Canada: A Small Gain, a Big Midweek Swing
The S&P/TSX Composite closed Friday at 35,789.09, up 183.82 points on the day and about 0.5% higher for the week from last Friday's 35,620.03. The path was bumpy: the index climbed to 36,341.40 on Wednesday (+2.28%), then dropped 736 points (-2.03%) on Thursday to 35,605.27, its sharpest one-day fall in about five months, as tech stocks sold off with Wall Street. Friday's rebound was led by base metals, health care and technology. Shopify and Celestica bounced after Thursday's hit.
| Canada | Close | Move | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX Composite | 35,789.09 | +0.52% | Week: +0.47% |
| Wednesday (Nov 4) | 36,341.40 | +2.28% | Post-midterm rally |
| Thursday (Nov 5) | 35,605.27 | -2.03% | Worst day in ~5 months |
| Canada 10-yr yield | ~3.7% | flat | Near 2-month low |
| Canadian dollar | ~70.8¢ US | -0.8% | Week: -1.1% |
The jobs report was the sour note. Statistics Canada said the economy lost 4,700 jobs in October, versus a forecast gain of about 13,600, and the unemployment rate rose to 6.7% from 6.5%, a six-month high. It was the third straight monthly job loss, with private-sector employment down 53,000. Ontario's unemployment rate rose to 7.3%. The loonie fell 0.8% on the day, its worst week since late September, and traders trimmed bets on a December Bank of Canada hike after the BoC lifted its rate to 2.50% on Oct 28.
Budget 2026 landed Thursday. Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne tabled a $62.3 billion deficit for 2026-27 (down from the $65.3 billion projected in April) and about $142 billion in new measures over five years, including a business investment tax deduction and another top-up to the GST/grocery rebate expected in early 2027. Analysts largely called it big but in line with what markets already expected.
🇺🇸 United States: Worst Week Since the April 2025 Tariff Shock
The S&P 500 fell 2.68% on the week, its worst since April 2025, even though it rose 0.31% on Friday. Wednesday's post-election rally sent the Dow up roughly 1,500 points, but Thursday erased it: the S&P 500 dropped 4.4%, the Nasdaq fell 5.5% into correction territory, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index lost 12.2%, its worst day since 2020. The trigger was fear that a Democrat-led Congress could tighten rules on AI and data-centre spending. Chip stocks bounced Friday, but breadth stayed weak.
| U.S. Index | Fri Close | Fri Move | Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,376.86 | +0.31% | -2.68% |
| Dow Jones | 51,285.73 | -0.46% | -0.94% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 24,579.42 | +1.09% | -3.37% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,754.11 | +0.89% | -2.05% |
| VIX (fear gauge) | 25.64 | -9.0% | +32% |
A hot jobs report added a twist. The U.S. added 165,000 jobs in October, far above the roughly 59,000 expected, and hourly wages rose 0.4%. Markets now price about an 80% chance of another Federal Reserve rate hike in December. The 10-year Treasury yield ended the week near 4.86% (down from 4.94%), and the U.S. dollar index rose to about 102.3.
🇪🇺 Europe: Tech Spillover on Friday
European shares fell about 1% on Friday as the AI scare crossed the Atlantic, though the STOXX 600 still edged out a small weekly gain because of lighter exposure to AI stocks. The STOXX 600 is up more than 10% so far in 2026, now ahead of the S&P 500's year-to-date gain.
| Europe | Fri Close | Fri Move | Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| STOXX Europe 600 | 648.33 | -1.00% | Small gain |
| Germany DAX | 25,820.36 | -1.92% | — |
| France CAC 40 | 8,139.00 | -0.81% | — |
| UK FTSE 100 | 10,673.94 | -1.01% | -0.5% |
🌏 Asia: Chip Rout Hits Hard on Friday
Asia took the brunt of the AI selloff on Friday. South Korea's Kospi plunged as much as 8.8%, triggering a 20-minute trading halt, before closing 6% lower. Japan's Nikkei fell nearly 6% for its fifth straight decline. Taiwan's index dropped 4.5% and booked its worst week since 2001.
| Asia | Fri Close | Fri Move |
|---|---|---|
| Japan Nikkei 225 | 57,434.77 | -5.96% |
| South Korea Kospi | 5,059.69 | -6.02% |
| Taiwan TAIEX | — | -4.51% |
| Hong Kong Hang Seng | 24,481.86 | -1.27% |
| Shanghai Composite | 3,649.18 | -1.10% |
🛢️ Oil, Gold and Currencies
Oil had its steepest weekly drop since 2020 as traders bet that a Democratic Congress and renewed diplomacy would speed an end to the Iran conflict. WTI settled Friday at US$90.83 (down about 12.8% from last Friday's US$104.12) and Brent at US$98.32, roughly 13% lower. A rebound late in the week came as tanker attacks near Hormuz resumed, a reminder the risk premium has not disappeared. Gold climbed about 4.6% on the week to roughly US$4,080 an ounce.
| Commodity / FX | Friday Level | Week |
|---|---|---|
| WTI crude | US$90.83 | -12.8% |
| Brent crude | US$98.32 | -13% |
| Gold (futures) | ~US$4,080/oz | +4.6% |
| CAD/USD | ~70.8¢ (C$1.41) | -1.1% |
| U.S. dollar index | 102.28 | +0.4% |
Your wallet: A weaker loonie (about 70.8¢) makes U.S. travel, U.S.-dollar subscriptions and cross-border shopping pricier. Cheaper oil is good news for pump prices over time, and the federal gas tax holiday is scheduled to run through Jan 31, 2027.
Your mortgage: Canadian 10-year yields near a two-month low are a tailwind for fixed-rate pricing, but lenders move slowly. Variable-rate holders should note that the Bank of Canada's next move now depends heavily on the jobs and inflation data.
🗓️ What to Watch Next Week (Nov 9–13)
| Date | Event | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Mon, Nov 9 | Barrick Mining earnings | Gold prices jumped this week; a read-through for TSX materials |
| Tue, Nov 10 | U.S. October CPI (8:30 a.m. ET) | Forecast about +0.3% m/m headline, +0.2% core; shapes Fed hike bets |
| Wed, Nov 11 | U.S. bond market closed (Veterans Day) | Thinner trading in U.S. yields |
| Thu, Nov 12 | Cisco and Applied Materials earnings; U.S. existing home sales | Will test whether the AI and chip bounce has legs |
| Fri, Nov 13 | U.S. producer price index (PPI) | Another inflation read ahead of the December Fed meeting |
Bottom line: The tone for the week ahead hinges on Tuesday's U.S. inflation data and whether Friday's chip bounce holds. Closing levels are from major market data sources and may differ slightly between vendors.
Disclaimer: This article is for general information only and is not financial, investment or tax advice. Market levels are as of Friday, November 6, 2026 closes unless noted. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
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