Oil had its worst day since July, and Canadian stocks took the hint. The S&P/TSX Composite recovered from Friday’s rout on Monday as crude tumbled on hopes of US–Iran talks, but a fresh chip selloff pulled the Nasdaq lower on Wall Street. Overnight, Asia was dragged by South Korean tech and Europe slipped after a reported US strike on Iran’s Qeshm Island pushed oil back up. It’s US midterms day. Here’s the full picture.
Monday, Nov. 2 closing figures, plus Tuesday morning moves (as of early Tuesday ET; Tuesday numbers will keep changing).
Market Snapshot
| Market | Monday close | Change |
|---|
| S&P/TSX Composite | 35,801.09 | +0.51% |
| Dow Jones | 51,983.98 | +0.41% |
| S&P 500 | 7,541.40 | −0.51% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 25,164.32 | −1.07% |
| Brent crude | US$104.77 | −7.6% |
| WTI crude | US$96.46 | −7.4% |
| Gold (spot) | ~US$3,945 | +1.3–1.8% |
| Canadian dollar | ~71.5¢ US | flat |
| US 10-year yield | ~4.90% | −2 to −5 bp |
Canada: TSX Bounces Back, Energy Takes the Hit
The TSX gained 181.06 points, or 0.51%, to close at 35,801.09, recovering part of Friday’s 629-point (1.74%) drop to 35,620.03, its steepest one-day fall in nearly six months. Industrials, materials and financials led the way, while energy sank with crude.
- Energy producers slumped: Baytex fell about 9.8%, Strathcona about 9.5% and Vermilion about 8.5% as oil dropped.
- Factories contracted: the S&P Global Canada manufacturing PMI fell to 49.6 in October from 51.5 in September, the first reading below 50 in 2026.
- Trade talk helped sentiment: President Trump said Canada and the US are “very close” to a deal after a Sunday call with Prime Minister Carney, though no deal has been announced.
United States: Oil Relief Meets a Chip Rout
The S&P 500 was up as much as 1.1% early, then gave it all back and finished down 0.5%, even though most stocks in the index rose. Falling oil lifted the broader market (the Dow gained 213.67 points), but Nvidia swung from a gain to a loss and tech sold off again. The Nasdaq fell 5.3% in October, and the Russell 2000 slipped 0.2% to 2,805.88.
- Mega-deal, muted cheers: Marvell agreed to buy Lumentum in an all-stock deal valued at US$115 billion including debt. Marvell shares tumbled roughly 12–13%.
- AI funding worries: Oracle said it will raise US$20 billion through stock and bond sales and fell 8.8% to US$119.22.
- Factories strong in the US: the ISM manufacturing index rose to 55.5 from 54.5, the 10th straight month of expansion.
- Apple after the bell: earnings of US$2.10 a share on US$114.48 billion in revenue beat estimates, but a weaker gross-margin forecast (memory-chip costs) sent the stock down roughly 2.5–4.5% in extended and premarket trading.
- The Fed: it held at 3.75%–4.00% last week, and futures put the odds of a December hike at roughly 70–75%.
Europe and Asia
Europe, Monday close: stocks rose as cheaper oil helped airlines and industrials (Lufthansa and Ryanair gained) while BP and Shell fell.
| Index | Monday close | Change |
|---|
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 6,179 | +0.78% |
| Germany DAX | 25,983 | +0.64% |
| France CAC 40 | 8,048 | +0.98% |
| UK FTSE 100 | 10,761 | +0.29% |
| STOXX 600 | 8-week high | +0.4% |
Europe, Tuesday morning: markets reversed lower, with the STOXX 600 down roughly 0.3% to 0.8% at various points, the DAX weaker than the CAC and FTSE, and tech leading declines after Apple’s margin warning and Oracle’s fundraising.
Asia, Tuesday close: mostly lower on tech losses. Japan was closed for a holiday (the Nikkei rose 0.33% to 63,081.86 on Monday).
| Index | Tuesday close | Change |
|---|
| South Korea Kospi | 5,648.79 | −3.59% |
| Taiwan Weighted | 43,307.54 | −3.59% |
| Shanghai Composite | – | −0.8% |
| China CSI 300 | 4,008.87 | −0.2% |
| Hong Kong Hang Seng | – | +0.4% |
| Australia S&P/ASX 200 | 8,886.8 | +0.34% |
In Australia, the Reserve Bank hiked its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.85%, its fifth increase this year, on a split 6–3 vote, but stopped short of signalling another move. Samsung fell 4.5% and SK Hynix 6% in Seoul.
Oil, Gold and the Loonie
Brent fell US$8.87 to settle at US$104.77 and WTI fell US$7.66 to US$96.46, the biggest one-day drops since July, as Iran signalled it is open to talks and Washington said it prefers a diplomatic route. WTI closed back below US$100. The relief was short-lived: on Tuesday, a US official said US forces struck Iran’s Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz, and Brent bounced about 1.6% back above US$100, with WTI near US$98.
Gold recovered to roughly US$3,945 an ounce (spot) after Friday’s steep selloff, with silver near US$50.80. The Canadian dollar was little changed at about 71.5 cents US.
What It Means for You
- Pump prices: a lower crude price can eventually ease gas costs, but Tuesday’s rebound shows how quickly the oil story can flip. Don’t budget around one day’s move.
- Mortgages and borrowing: falling oil and US yields reduce some pressure on central banks to keep raising rates. If lower US yields carry into Canadian bond yields, fixed-rate pricing can ease. Variable-rate and HELOC costs still follow last week’s Bank of Canada hike.
- Your investments: tech-heavy US funds were hit again, while the TSX’s mix of banks, miners and energy moved in different directions on the same day. It’s a reminder to check how diversified your RRSP and TFSA really are.
- Cross-border spending: with the loonie steady near 71.5 cents US, there’s no big change in what US travel or online orders cost today.
What to Watch
- Today (Tue): US midterm voting (polls favour Democrats retaking the House; control of the Senate is less clear), US factory orders and JOLTS job openings at 10 a.m. ET, Iran and Strait of Hormuz headlines, and the market’s reaction to Apple.
- Wednesday: US ADP employment, ISM services index, and the US Treasury’s planned auction sizes.
- Thursday: Canada’s Budget 2026 is tabled, the Bank of England announces its decision, and US jobless claims are released.
- Friday: October jobs reports in Canada and the US.
Figures are from Monday’s closes and early Tuesday reporting by The Canadian Press/BNN Bloomberg, Reuters, the Associated Press, Trading Economics, Kitco, CNBC and Investing.com, cross-checked across sources; Tuesday levels are indicative and will change. This article is for general information only and is not financial advice. MoneySavings.ca is not a registered investment advisor.
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